Dr Fauci tells Americans to keep these important limitations in mind about any future coronavirus vaccine

Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases for three decades and pandemic expert for four decades, has been optimistic about a vaccine arriving in late 2020 or early 2021, but he also warned the public of their expectations for the effectiveness of any vaccine developed.

“The odds of it being 98% aren’t that great, which means you should never give up on the public health approach,” Fauci said in a recent live question-and-answer session hosted by the ‘Brown University. “We must consider a vaccine as a tool so that a pandemic is no longer a pandemic, but that it is well controlled.”

“What I’m aiming for is that with a vaccine and good public health measures, we can bring it back somewhere between very good control and elimination,” he told Abdullah Shihipar, partner of public health research at Brown. in the interview. “So that’s what a vaccine will do, but it won’t do it on its own.”


“The chances that it is 98% are not great. Which means you should never give up on the public health approach.


– Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases

Fauci said he hoped a vaccine for the coronavirus could be developed by early 2021, but previously said a vaccine was unlikely to provide 100% immunity; he said the best realistic result, based on other vaccines, would be 70% to 75% effective. The measles vaccine, he said, is among the most effective, providing 97% immunity.

Reviews of previous studies have shown that, on average, the flu vaccine is about 50% to 60% effective for healthy adults between the ages of 18 and 64, according to a review of studies from the Mayo Clinic. . “The vaccine can sometimes be less effective”, It said. “Even when the vaccine doesn’t completely prevent the flu, it can reduce the severity of your illness.”

Fauci advocates face masks, social distancing, and avoiding bars and indoor spaces with crowds. “If we do these things – and I’ll repeat it until I’m exhausted – these things work,” he said on Friday’s live broadcast. “When you have something that requires everyone to shoot at the same time, if you have a weak link that doesn’t, that doesn’t get you to the end of the game.”

Stephen Hahn, Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, said last month that the agency would give the green light to a vaccine against the coronavirus as long as it is 50% effective. “We all want a vaccine tomorrow, it’s unrealistic, and we all want a 100% effective vaccine, again unrealistic. We said 50%. Hahn added, “It was a reasonable floor considering the pandemic.”

As people get used to living with coronavirus, social distancing and mask protocols are also improving. The United States has the highest number of COVID-19 cases (5,151,369) and deaths (164,690) in the world, followed by Brazil (103,026), Mexico (53,929) and the United Kingdom ( 46 611). As of Wednesday, there were 20,391,697 confirmed cases of coronavirus worldwide and 741,423 deaths.

The Dow Jones Industrial Index
DJIA,
+ 0.29%,
S&P 500 SPX,
+ 0.07%
and Nasdaq Composite COMP,
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were up on Wednesday as investors awaited the progress of the second round of a fiscal stimulus during the coronavirus pandemic.

The number of coronavirus cases continues to rise in all parts of the country. With 10,649 deaths, California is now the third US state to record more than 10,000 deaths after New York (32,787 deaths) and New Jersey (15,890 deaths). Texas has the fourth highest death toll (9,225).

Related: Do you feel lax about masks? Think again. Here’s how many lives could be saved if everyone wore a mask – starting today

President Trump on Saturday signed four executive orders that include extending unemployment benefits after Congress failed to strike a deal on a stimulus package.

In the absence of a vaccine, health experts say social distancing and masks are the only alternative because “herd immunity” – where those who are immune protect the most vulnerable in the population – is not feasible for the coronavirus. This requires a very high level of immunity of the population against COVID-19, the disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, and for the virus not to mutate.

“None of these appear to be operational right now,” Gregory Poland, who studies vaccine immunogenetics at the Mayo Clinic, told MarketWatch in April. “With the flu, you need 60% to 70% herd immunity. With measles, you need about 95%. With COVID-19, it’s somewhere in the middle, ”he says.

“What we’ve seen during the pandemic is a lot of preprints and press releases,” Hahn said in a separate interview with the JAMA medical journal. “We can’t make a decision based on a pre-print or a press release, and that’s because we insist on seeing all the raw data from clinical trials.” Traditionally, this research goes through a peer review process before publication.


“With the flu, you need 60% to 70% herd immunity. With measles, you need about 95%. With COVID-19, it’s somewhere in the middle. ”


– Gregory Poland, who studies vaccine immunogenetics at the Mayo Clinic

In the meantime, the public should continue to wear masks, authorities say. The U.S. death toll from COVID-19 in the United States could reach nearly 300,000 by December 1, but wearing a mask consistently from today could save around 70,000 lives, released projections show last week by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. Medicine School.

“It seems people wear masks and socially distance themselves more frequently as infections increase, then after a while as infections drop people let their guard down and stop taking these steps to protect themselves and protect themselves. the rest, which of course leads to more infections, “MCH director Christopher Murray said,” and the life-threatening cycle begins again. “

In April – after two months of clouding the effectiveness of face masks, during which New York City became the epicenter of the pandemic in the United States, and a month after the WHO declared the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic – US federal authorities have turned around and said all Americans should, after all, wear a face mask in public places and be aware of asymptomatic carriers.

So how contagious is a person who has contracted COVID-19 – but has no symptoms? This study, published this week in the medical journal JAMA Internal Medicine, provides a theory for the first question. It has isolated 303 patients with COVID-19 at a treatment center in South Korea. Of these, 110 (36%) were asymptomatic and 21 (19%) developed symptoms during isolation.

What they found: “Many people with SARS-CoV-2 infection remained asymptomatic for an extended period of time, and the viral load was similar to that of symptomatic patients,” the scientists concluded. “Therefore, isolation of infected people should be done regardless of symptoms.” The researchers analyzed swabs taken from the group between March 6 and March 26.

About Rachelle Roosevelt

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